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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Why size is now everything in China

By Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai with additional reporting,by Yan Jin

Published: June 23 2009 03:00 | Last updated: June 23 2009 03:00

Big eyes, big noses, big breasts and now humungous Hummers - China seems to be indulging an obsession with size, just when the rest of the world is learning the virtues of moderation.

In Shanghai, for example, business is booming on eyelifts, noselifts, chestlifts and other surgery aimed at enlarging classically Asian narrow eyes, flat noses and unobtrusive mammary glands. At the Shanghai Time Plastic Surgery Hospital, Dr Liao Yuhua says business is up 40 per cent since the end of last year - not despite the global economic crisis, but because of it.

Half her business is job-related: "Many of our customers are white-collar workers, many have lost their jobs, so they have time to execute their plastic surgery dreams," says the retired paediatrician, whose genially wrinkled face and ankle socks that bag around her feet hardly seem like anyone's clichéd view of a plastic surgeon.

"They want to be more competitive when they go for the next interview," she says, adding that famously pushy Chinese parents are very "supportive" of this trend.

Several brought in their children to make appointments straight after China's strongly competitive national university entrance examinations earlier this month. "Parents hope that their kids can be more competitive in job hunting," she says, admitting that as an employer, she would "recruit a prettier nurse with the same qualities as one who wasn't so pretty".

Graduates leaving college this year are facing one of the toughest job markets in years, and women - who make up three-quarters of Dr Liao's patients - find it particularly hard to land a job. According to a study recently by the Centre for Women's Law and Legal Services of Peking University, published in the Chinese press, one in four women surveyed said they had failed to get a job because of gender, a fifth said salaries were cut if they became pregnant and 11 per cent lost jobs when they had a family.

Dr Liao says plastic surgeries have grown by 15 per cent a year since the fad really took off in China about five years ago. But China is hardly alone in using disposable income on facelifts - and even justifying the cost as a career development expense. In the US last year, according to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, cosmetic procedures rose among all groups except Caucasians; procedures among Hispanics were up 18 per cent. But the age profile of consumers of plastic procedures - and the parts of their bodies they want fixed - differs greatly from the US to Asia.

At Dr Liao's hospital, the top two procedures are so-called double-eyelid surgery - which inserts an extra crease in the eyelid to make the eyes appear larger - and inserting a bridge in the nose, using a part of the rib. "Oriental people prefer bigger eyes and bigger noses - everything they don't have," she says, chuckling at the irony that, in Chinese slang, westerners are called "big noses" (and it is not necessarily a compliment). Her clients are mostly aged 25 to 35 - whereas half of all plastic surgeries in the US are for patients aged 40 to 55.

Bigger eyes are relatively cheap: from RMB2,400 ($350, €252, £213). Bigger breasts cost RMB60,000 (and clients must sacrifice a piece of thigh).

Zhou Jin Feng is one of the clinic's satisfied past clients (blackhead removal). This time the 31- year-old nurse - clean-cut yet hardly a wanna-be movie star - wants a double eyelid and more pointed chin. "Young people these days want to be pretty, it's important for their self-esteem, mainly for job hunting," she says. Dr Liao says many of her patients are doctors, nurses or teachers: "Beauty is very important for communication in such professions," she says.

Dr Liao can remember when plastic surgery would have been seen as bourgeois decadence of the first order. Now she thinks it is just a natural consequence of the wealth effect. "When the basic needs are met - a car, a house, food - what shall we do with our extra money? Spend it on beautification." Additional reporting by Yan Jin

Worries over systemic risk in CMBS

By Aline van Duyn

Published: June 23 2009 03:00 | Last updated: June 23 2009 03:00

Even as conditions in many parts of the credit markets have improved, a big question mark hangs over one large part of the market that is still dysfunctional: the market for securities backed by commercial mortgages.

Behind the scenes, regulators are acutely aware that the commercial real estate market is one of the few potential remaining sources of systemic risk if the financing problems cannot be fixed.

William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, highlighted this earlier this month: "The revival of the commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) market is essential to stabilising the commercial real estate market.

"If the availability of funding for this market is not restored, the downturn in commercial real estate valuation and the losses for the holders of these assets will be greater," he added. "This will, in turn, likely further constrain credit availability. That's the vicious cycle we want to lean against."

The clock is ticking with some of the $3,400bn of loans made to property developers for anything from urban office tower blocks to shopping malls across the US due for payment.

At the moment, it is near-impossible for developers to refinance these maturing commercial mortgages though the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) sector, which makes up 25 per cent of the real estate financing sector.

Even properties that are not in distress - the ones where the value of the property is still larger than the financing behind it - are in danger of defaulting if this problem is not fixed.

The Federal Reserve is in charge of fixing this. It had planned to provide investors with funding to buy securities backed by commercial mortgages last week. In the event, the deals were not ready. They are supposed to kick off in July instead, and all eyes will be on whether the term asset-backed securities loan facility (Talf) - a $1,000bn credit facility aimed at easing the pain of a credit crunch - will deliver.

If the Fed cannot unblock the market for securities backed by commercial mortgages, there are concerns that another wave of losses could be unleashed on the fragile US banking system.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned as early as February 2008 that losses on commercial real estate debt could be on a par with those from subprime mortgages but the pain would be felt over a longer timeline. Goldman currently estimates losses of $234bn from US commercial real estate loans raised between 1995 and 2008.

Rating agencies are also warning about the bleak outlook for European loans. "Some of the largest loans in European CMBS are scheduled to mature in the next two to four years and it remains questionable as to whether markets will have improved enough by then to allow for orderly refinance," says Euan Gatfield, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings.

Although the CMBS sector faces a series of downgrades - bringing echoes of the subprime mortgage-backed securities - there are important differences.

First of all, only a quarter of commercial mortgages are securitised - the proportion was much higher for subprime mortgages. Also, there was not the same amount of derivatives and securities created linked to commercial mortgages.

The subprime mortgage collapse was so damaging because billions of dollars of securities were linked to their value through derivatives. The commercial mortgage issue is vital for US banks, which have much reduced capacity on their balance sheets, meaning they are not as able to roll over and refinance maturing loans. In addition, there are concerns about losses once properties that are not in a good state have to be refinanced.

In other words, there will be properties where the value is far less than the loan, and additional equity has to be found.

(EQUITY INFUSION)"At least two-thirds of the loans maturing between 2009 and 2018 ($410bn) are unlikely to qualify for refinancing at maturity without significant equity infusions from borrowers," says Richard Parkus, analyst at Deutsche Bank.

"Bank and life companies, which make up approximately 50 per cent and 10 per cent of the [$3,400bn commercial real estate] market, respectively, must also be considered," said Mr Parkus. "The same combination of deteriorating underwriting standards and excessive price inflation were operating in bank and life company lending [as in the CMBS market]."

The Fed's initial plans are aimed at funding new securities backed by new mortgage loans. The complication is that the decision to lend new commercial mortgages, unlike credit card or auto loan backed securities, is very closely linked to the interest rates available on existing CMBS. The collapse of the sector and the departure of numerous buyers of CMBS led to a huge increase in interest rates, and these remain high.

The Fed is also planning to provide investors, such as hedge funds, loans through the Talf to buy existing CMBS, but the plans are complicated by the fact that Standard & Poor's has said it may downgrade many recent CMBS from triple A. The current Fed plans specify that it will only finance CMBS with triple A ratings.

Although many market participants expect the Fed could tweak these rules, the growing risks in the sector highlight the political balance of wanting to offer finance to property developers and others and protecting taxpayers from losses which those developers and others would otherwise potentially incur.

Because the market for existing securities remains blighted, it complicates the creation of new mortgages. Within the real estate market it is believed that one or two deals are being readied for Talf financing. But because the exposure cannot be hedged so easily the Talf may only work when an entire deal is financed through it.

Against this backdrop, it is clear why Mr Dudley stressed recently the CMBS market was the biggest test of the Talf programme.

"The rollout of Talf to the CMBS market this summer will be important in determining the overall success of the programme," he said. It could also be important in determining whether those waiting for another shoe to drop - the commercial mortgage market - are right or not.

Additional reporting by Anousha Sakoui in London and Nicole Bullock in New York

Monday, June 22, 2009

China will not save the world economy

Published: June 21 2009 19:04 | Last updated: June 21 2009 19:04

Both too much and too little are expected of China’s response to the economic crisis: too much, because the Asian giant can play only a modest role in rescuing the world economy; too little, because few believe the economy will be radically changed. The stimulus programme is helpful, for China and the world. But the real challenge is structural transformation.

As the World Bank’s June quarterly update shows, China’s response to the crisis has been a success. It forecasts economic growth at 7.2 per cent in 2009. This is a long way down from the 11.9 per cent in 2007. But it would be viewed as a triumph anywhere else. For such an open economy to cope with a fall in the rate of real export growth from 20 per cent in 2007 to 8 per cent last year and a forecast of minus 10 per cent this year is remarkable.

Nevertheless, the impact of China’s stimulus on the rest of the world will be modest: the country generates only 7 per cent of global output, at market prices; more-over, the bank also forecasts a decline of 5 per cent in real imports this year. The net stimulus China will give to the rest of the world will only be around 0.1 per cent of global output in 2009.

Certainly, China needs to sustain demand. It can also afford to do so: the fiscal deficit is forecast at a mere 5 per cent of GDP in 2009 and the risk of an upsurge in inflation is quite small.

Yet there is a danger. It is that what is needed in the short term makes required longer-term reform more difficult. As the World Bank notes, this stimulus is dependent on “government-influenced spending”. That can only be a stop-gap. Both the opportunity created by the crisis and the time given by the stimulus must be used to shift the pattern of growth, instead.

The rapid past expansion of gross and net exports is not going to return. China must move, instead, towards an economy led by private rather than public demand, towards consumption rather than investment, towards labour-intensive services rather than capital-intensive industry and towards reliance on domestic rather than foreign markets.

These shifts demand a number of linked reforms: opening more sectors to private competition; raising interest rates paid by privileged borrowers and to hard-pressed savers; forcing state-owned enterprises to pay dividends and using the proceeds to support public services; and introducing a decent social safety net.

For China, this crisis is a golden opportunity. It must be seized.

Rich nations "short-sighted" on growth

By Chris Giles in London

June 22, 2009

Leading developed nations are misguided in focusing efforts on restoring demand in their own economies, the World Bank will say on Monday.

This is because emerging markets – suffering a severe shortage of foreign funds – are fundamental for a return to global growth.

In its annual Global Development Financereport, the World Bank expects private capital flows to developing countries to fall almost three-quarters this year to $363bn (€260bn, £220bn) from a $1,200bn peak in 2007.

The drop in credit flows will undermine investment in emerging and developing economies, it says, with a consequent hit on rich country exports of capital-intensive goods – one of the sectors hardest hit in the global recession.

Japan, Germany and South Korea, the wealthy nations suffering the worst drops in output, specialised in exports of investment goods, which have been struck low by a lack of appetite for investment in poorer countries and the postponement of purchases of durable goods.

The report welcomes signs of improving global equity, bond and interbank markets but says the stark reduction of private capital flows to poorer nations will lead to lower investment and slower emerging market and global growth in the medium term.

As a result, the authors warn rich countries against putting pressure on their big banks to curtail lending to poorer countries.

“It is a very, very short-sighted policy,” Hans Timmer, of the World Bank’s prospects group, told the Financial Times.

“There is self-interest in protecting emerging and developing markets.”

So far, leaders of wealthy countries have decried financial protectionism, while pressing their own banks to refrain from risky foreign lending.

The bank frets that too little effort is being given to ensuring emerging and developing economies return to normal growth rates after being struck down by the crisis of confidence following Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September.

Within emerging markets, the main focus should be on preventing the financial crisis fully engulfing central and east Europe, the report says. These countries are vulnerable because their current-account deficits increase reliance on foreign flows of private capital.

In poorer developing counties, the concern is that, through no fault of their own, recent years of rising incomes will end – with the risk of a backlash and a return to the inward-looking domestic policies so damaging to prosperity.

The World Bank estimates that the destruction of private capital flows alongside current-account deficits and the need to refinance maturing debt will leave emerging and developing countries short of up to $635bn.

This funding gap will need to come from official sources, such as foreign aid, or foreign exchange reserves in countries with large stockpiles, such as Russia. If it is absent, growth prospects in poor, and consequently richer, economies will be at risk.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Memorable Quotes

Dealing with crime/prisoners: "the best way to avoid crime is to reintegrate offenders into society" - Jan De Cock, "I've slept in 70 prisons", FT, June 20, 2009

Financial markets:

"As the run on Lehman showed, when confidence goes, liquidity follows suit. Conversely, the system's inherent upward bias - even in the era of short-selling, more people make money if markets go up rather than down - gives investors a strong incentive to believe good news" - Francesco Guerrera, "If the crisis is over, it may be the time to start worry", FT, June 20, 2009

"The recession is a great equalizer" Lex Column, FT, June 20, 2009

Healthcare reform: "content matters more than form, and (that) what is best must give way to what is feasbile" - FT Editorial, June 18, 2009

China: China seems to be indulging an obsession with size, just when the rest of the world is learning the virtues of moderation. A natural consequence of the wealth effect. "When the basic needs are met - a car, a house, food - what shall we do with our extra money? Spend it on beautification."

Megan Fox on Acting

"We actors are kind of prostitutes. We get paid to feign attraction and love. Other people are paying to watch us kissing someone, touching someone, doing things people in a normal monogamous relationship would never do with anyone who's not their partner. It's really kind of gross." - British GQ, July 2009
Subaru Outback: driving for the experience
Subaru Outback : the nich for Subaru is what is calls "experience seekers" or, as Mr Mahoney puts it, "people who are going throug life collecting experiences (driving the manual transmission for experience) and not necessarily possessions (luxury cars)."

Debt Versus Equity (Subsidized Leverage)

"Tax distortions have caused leverage to be substantially higher than it would have been under a neutral tax system"

"On an individual level, many countries offer tax benefits for homeowners as opposed to renters. Some offer tax relief on mortgage interest, including the US, Spain, France and Italy........ they did encourage mortgage borrowing and the accumulation of household debt."

IMF blames tax distortions for helping to fuel credit boom

By Sarah O'Connor in Washington

Published: June 17 2009 03:00 | Last updated: June 17 2009 03:00

Tax policies helped to fuel the credit boom by encouraging borrowing by companies and individuals, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday as it suggested countries change their tax rules to reduce such incentives.

The IMF said tax regimes in most countries encouraged companies to finance themselves with debt rather than equity and also made it cheaper for people to take out mortgages. Such policies contributed to an unsustainable build-up of credit, the collapse of which propelled the world into recession.

"We're not saying tax was the cause of the crisis [but] we do see some tax fingerprints at the scene of the crime," said Michael Keen, assistant director of tax policy at the IMF's fiscal affairs department.

Most tax regimes allow companies to deduct interest payments against tax, but not returns on equity. Leveraged buy-outs by private equity companies benefited substantially from this tilt towards debt, but the IMF said other companies were also pushed towards debt-financing by the rule.

"Tax distortions have caused leverage to be substantially higher than it would have been under a neutral tax system," it said in a report yesterday.

There was a "strong case" for countries to change their tax systems to create a level playing field between debt and equity, the report said. It suggested two ways to do this: eliminate the deductibility of interest payments, which would be politically fraught, or create some kind of deductibility for the notional cost of equity financing.

The latter would be the better route, the IMF argued. For banks, it would amount to giving tax deductions on Tier 1 capital, thus encouraging them to build better capital reserves.

Several countries have adopted so-called Allowance for Corporate Equity rules. However, such a policy can radically reduce the amount of tax revenue a government pulls in, at a time when many governments' finances are strained. Croatia's corporate tax base might have fallen by a third as a result of the rule, the IMF said.

On an individual level, many countries offer tax benefits for homeowners as opposed to renters. Some offer tax relief on mortgage interest, including the US, Spain, France and Italy. While the IMF did not find evidence that such policies caused the jump in house prices that occurred before the crash, it said they did encourage mortgage borrowing and the accumulation of household debt.

"We're not drawing from that conclusion that one should instantly remove all these housing tax privileges," Mr Keen said. "That's clearly not something one would want to do until the housing markets have come back to some sort of normality. But, on the other hand, we would be cautious about adding new privileges of this kind, which could store up future problems."

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has been investigating the same issue, and is drawing similar conclusions.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

FT Editorial on Women Directors of Norway

Northern lights

Published: June 15 2009 19:52 | Last updated: June 15 2009 19:52

Since last year, Norwegian listed companies have been under a legal obligation to ensure 40 per cent board representation for each gender. France and other states are considering copying the quota. It is still early but results reported by the FT on Monday seem promising.

Norway’s legislation had two unrelated motivations. One was the perception that low female representation on boards was caused not by women’s choices but by an unfair lack of access. The second was the idea that more diverse boards exhibit less group-think and conformism – to the benefit of companies and society at large.

Norway’s policy has obviously addressed the first of these concerns: 44 per cent of directors in listed companies are now women, whereas in unlisted companies, not subject to the law, fewer than 20 per cent are. The second is harder to assess but supporters say that women – unconstrained by the conventions of traditionally male boardrooms – are less inhibited from asking questions.

Welcome as such outcomes would be, they must not obscure problems the reform does not solve. Access to directorships is now as good for women as for men – but for a rather non-diverse group of women: upper-middle class, with the education, attitudes and network prized by nomination committees. In other words, a similar group to that from which male directors are drawn.

Some benefits of diversity may also be transient. If gender balance leads to freer discussion, it may be because it shakes up boards and women directors are often new to the task. Once the high female ratio loses its novelty, women directors may prove just as convention-prone as men.

An important lesson of Norway’s experiment is that even radical adjustment need not be as hard as is often thought. Opponents predicted not enough qualified women would be found. But in practice, the problem seems no worse for women than for men: for both groups Norway offers such a limited pool that multiple directorships are common.

Business leaders are forced to discover talent previously ignored. That is a good thing: too many boards do not do their job well. Enlightened companies will use diversity to improve performance. But to avoid corporate identity politics, they should ultimately try to make quotas unnecessary. Aiming for diverse boards can help recruit the best heads. That, not diversity for its own sake, is the point of quotas, whether legally imposed or self-adopted.

Women directors

Skirting the boards

By Richard Milne

Published: June 14 2009 18:26 | Last updated: June 15 2009 07:15

Mimi Berdal
Shortly after Norway proposed a law forcing listed companies to have women as 40 per cent of their directors, Mimi Berdal’s telephone started ringing off the hook.

The former corporate lawyer was contacted by many of the 500 or so companies that were scrambling to fill their boards with the requisite number of women. She now sits on 12 boards and regularly tops newspaper lists of the most prominent businesswomen. But Ms Berdal is just one of what have become known as the “golden skirts”, a group of Norwegian women who have become full-time non-executive directors on the back of the law.

“Everybody called the few women they knew from beforehand,” the 49-year-old says. “Only last week I was asked to become a director at a very large company but I declined.”

Politicians in egalitarian Norway, aware that by 2002 only 6 per cent of directors were female, legislated the following year to introduce the controversial quota, which came into full force last year. As a corporate and public policy experiment it is being watched by businesses and governments around the world, in the wake of a global financial crisis that many argue might have been averted if bank boards in particular had less of a testosterone-fuelled culture.

FIVE-YEAR JOURNEY

Like many European countries, Norway separates its board from the management of a company. But it also separates out the nomination committee, which chooses only directors and not executives, and is meant to represent shareholders’ views.

First proposed in 2003, the law on director gender was pushed through three years later and came into force in 2008 as part of the country’s main companies act. The percentage of women required depends on the size of the board but for main listed companies it is at least 40 per cent. The law also applies to state and municipal companies such as waterworks but implementation there has been more patchy.

So how is the Norwegian attempt turning out? For a start, the country now has the world’s highest proportion of female board members. A study from Egon Zehnder International, the headhunter, shows that 44 per cent of directors are women. Outside the Nordic region, the counties with the next highest proportion are the Netherlands and the UK, both with 12 per cent. The European average excluding Norway is just 9 per cent – a figure that has scarcely changed in five years.

The law has thus clearly achieved its goals on paper. But what about on the ground? The doomsayers argued that qualified male directors would have to quit in favour of incompetent women and there would not be enough females to fill the posts. Even now, Steinar Hopland, another headhunter, says: “I still believe that quotas should be applied in fishing and whaling but not for women.”

Quotas are viewed suspiciously in many countries – indeed, neighbouring Sweden rejected a similar law three years ago. Yet Oslo’s experience is being tentatively declared a success. “As a principle, I don’t like quotas. But I have not been able to find any big problems with the legislation in practice,” says Idar Kreutzer, the male chief executive of Storebrand, Norway’s largest insurance group.

Although a similar view is expressed throughout corporate Norway, worries remain – such as whether women have replicated the old boys’ network with the same females getting the big jobs, or whether the focus has slipped from ensuring equality in executive positions both at board level and below.

As well as boosting the number of female non-executives, the law has succeeded in forcing nomination committees to cast their nets wider. “There are a lot of competent women out there. The challenge is finding them,” says Nils-Henrik Pettersson, a lawyer who sits on several nomination committees.

After one of her events presenting potential female directors, Elin Hurvenes, head of the Professional Boards Forum advisory service in Norway and the UK, says: “A 63-year-old Norwegian chairman said to me: ‘I had no idea there was such an abundance of suitable women. This has really opened my eyes.’ ”

Gender inequality on Norwegian boards stemmed in part from the country’s corporate structure. Nomination committees are separate from boards and are designed to allow shareholders to pick their own representatives as non-executive directors. “Most of the investors are male,” says Mr Pettersson, so they picked themselves or other men. Women also fell down because nomination committees looked for candidates with board experience and who worked as executives, criteria few women fulfilled,

Thorhild Widvey

As a result of the change, says Thorhild Widvey, a female full-time director, nomination committees have been forced to look in different areas for suitable female candidates. “They have turned to areas where there are lots of women such as lawyers, academics – and even ministers,” laughs the former energy minister, who now sits on nine boards. Early research on the law suggested many of the women were either economists or lawyers with plenty of ex-ministers too. Anne Breiby, another “golden skirt”, who has seven directorships, chairing the board in three of those, points to a database with several thousand women in it that companies can consult when they are looking.

Women are also changing the demographics of boards, with the latest figures showing 38 per cent of female directors are aged 45 or under, against only 20 per cent of men, while 71 per cent of women non-executives have higher education versus 62 per cent of males. More strikingly, it seems there are more “golden trousers” than “golden skirts”: according to the Center for Corporate Diversity in Oslo, only two in 10 women hold more than one board position while four in 10 men have multiple directorships.

More vexed is the issue of whether women have improved the quality of debate on boards. Academic studies are divided but Grace Reksten Skaugen, one of the country’s most prominent directors, who is on several Norwegian and Swedish boards, says female directors are less bound by convention and unembarrassed to admit they do not know something. “Women are more willing to ask questions without regard to whether they may be perceived as stupid or awkward questions,” she says.

Grace Reksten Skaugen helped bring to light a Statoil scandal

Ms Skaugen was herself involved in one of the most prominent examples of that questioning approach: she was among female directors at Statoil who did not accept answers about a corruption probe and called an extra board meeting that led to the resignations of both the chief executive and chairman of the oil company.

Ms Berdal says the quota law coincided with a debate on corporate governance in Norwegian companies and the combination has led “to a much better discussion”. Ms Breiby agrees, saying that directors no longer “sit” on the boards but “work” in them: “We have really raised the level of discussion in boards.”

Concerns still remain about the lack of board experience of some female directors. Mr Pettersson says that could lead to executives pulling the wool over the eyes of less qualified directors: “If there is a danger it must be that the board is weakened in its attitude to management.”

That returns to the issue most identified by the women themselves – that they are drawn from a small pool. Could it become an “old girls’ club”? Marit Hoel, director of the Center for Corporate Diversity, says: “What worries me is that we are on the edge of shaping a board culture among these women like the one we had ... I know so many well-qualified women who have not a single board seat.”

Many female directors point with dismay to rankings of the most prominent board members as a way of perpetuating that. “One of the problems is that nomination committees don’t look that hard,” says Ms Skaugen. But she adds that two pools of talent are better than how it was: “There is diversity because the pool of women is different to the pool of men.”

Another question is whether women are being diverted into becoming non-executives when they could instead be occupying top management jobs. Mr Kreutzer says: “Yes, it is a concern. Some of the well-qualified board members can live off it” – serving on a number of different boards rather than advancing through one company in a hands-on managerial role. “Even though they “could have been executives instead, [the problem] is not large enough to say this has been a bad experiment”.

Among executives, only a single-digit percentage is female. Yet few in business, male or female, feel there is a need for quotas to increase their number. As Ms Skaugen, a former investment banker, says: “Management is going to take longer [to change]. Not as many women want to be CEOs, because they find it hard to combine with children.” Ms Hurvenes even points to research that suggests women in Norway are reversing the traditional male career path of becoming executives first and then board directors. “Because being on a board is a stamp of approval, they are visible and they have contacts”, she says, offers of management positions do follow.

Companies such as Storebrand have taken matters into their own hands. Five years ago, Mr Kreutzer decided the long-term target was for 40 per cent of senior management to be female. Last year the insurer reached 39 per cent. “Competition in the corporate sector is more and more driven by getting hold of the right people,” he says.

Women are just one untapped pool of talent, he adds, pointing to second-generation immigrants as another that Storebrand is targeting.

Indeed, has the push to increase female representation on boards been at the cost of neglecting other ways to dilute the culture of “groupthink” that may have contributed across the west to a failure to challenge risky financial behaviour?

“The internationalisation of boards may be the most important form of diversity needed,” says Ms Skaugen, pointing to Statoil’s decision to recruit a Briton, Roy Franklin, as a director and introduce English as the language of board meetings. Mr Hopland, the headhunter, says Norwegian boards are still too homogenous in terms of age and origin and more effort should be put into increasing diversity in that way too.

Ms Berdal speaks for many of the women, though, when she says: “I agree they are important issues. But I don’t see how gender diversity is detrimental.”

Whatever worries remain, they fail to detract from the main achievement of the law. The presence of so many women on boards is as accepted now as it is in Norway’s government, where 40 per cent of ministers must be women. The touted problems of not finding sufficient women or of companies suffering because of their inexperience have all been shown to be surmountable.

As Ms Breiby says: “The discussion was: are there enough competent women? Now it is clear there are in Norway. Now imagine how many there are in France, which is 10 times the size of Norway.”

‘PART OF THE INTENTION WAS ACHIEVED EVEN IF THE LAW DIDN’T MATERIALISE’

A French parliamentary delegation to Norway last month was only the latest in a stream of foreigners keen to see its experiment in board engineering. “They were very interested – there has been a lot of interest from around the world,” says Mimi Berdal, a female full-time director who met the French.

Norway has gone the furthest in pushing female participation in the boardroom but other countries are thinking of following its lead. Sweden proposed a similar law in 2006 but a change in government meant it was scrapped. Nonetheless, says Grace Reksten Skaugen, a Norwegian who is a director at Investor, the Swedish financial group, the mere threat of the law was enough to increase the number of women on Swedish boards.

“Part of the intention was achieved even if the law didn’t materialise,” she says.

In legislative terms, the next most advanced country is Spain. Long perceived as a macho society, Spain introduced an equality law in 2007. It recommends that women have an “equal representation” to men – defined as 40 per cent to men’s 60 per cent – on boards by 2015.

There is no compulsion – unlike in Norway where there was a theoretical threat to close down non-compliant companies – but a suggestion that if a company wants government work it should comply. A study by Adecco, the employment agency, and Madrid’s IE business school suggests one in five companies have acted to promote women but nearly half have started such plans.

Celia de Anca of IE says: “In Spain it is more of an indirect command. Norway is more drastic.” She also contrasts the approach of legalistic countries such as Norway with the more free-market UK or US. Elin Hurvenes, a board adviser in Norway and the UK, says British groups appear as keen as Norwegian ones to tap female directors.

But there remains a long way to go. Research by Egon Zehnder, the headhunter, shows that one-quarter of European boards are male-only and, excluding Norway, only 9 per cent of non-executives are female. Among executives, Germany has only one female director in all its top 30 listed companies.

Ms de Anca says egalitarian Norway felt obliged to act after companies failed to respond to its initial threat to legislate. “That Norway had to do it shows that the problem is a real problem.”

E&Y's Working Capital Management report

Up to $1,000bn tied up inworking capital, says survey

By Richard Milne in Paris

Published: June 16 2009 03:00 | Last updated: June 16 2009 03:00

Big companies in Europe and the US have up to $1,000bn in cash tied up needlessly in working capital, says a report today.

The report by Ernst & Young highlights how an increasing number of companies are failing in the fight for cash unleashed by the global crisis to tap possible improvements in their working capital.

The management of working capital by changing payment terms to suppliers or from customers as well as cutting inventory has become central to many companies' focus on a "cash is king" strategy.

But they are still missing out as the number of companies improving fell at the end of last year.

"Despite a much stronger focus on cash, the findings indicate plentiful opportunities for many companies to release additional liquidity from working capital. The amount of $1,000bn is equivalent to 6 per cent of sales for these businesses," said David Sage, a partner for working capital management at the accounting firm.

Of the 2,000 companies surveyed, only 43 per cent reported improved working capital performance in the final quarter of last year compared with 63 per cent in the US and 50 per cent in Europe for the full year.

Similarly, the cash-to-cash cycle, which measures how long companies need to finance themselves as they wait for payment from customers after paying suppliers - deteriorated in the fourth quarter. It fell 7 per cent in the US and 3 per cent in Europe in spite of the full-year figures showing an improvement.

Steve Payne, a partner at Ernst & Young, pointed to the volatility in currency and commodity prices as a factor as well as the depth of the recession.

"Companies should pay more attention to working capital management when planning and executing their responses to a more challenging environment," Mr Payne said.

The report also underlined how companies had failed to cut inventory as fast as demand dropped.

Companies have been caught out by the speed of the plunge in demand and experts believe that could complicate the recovery as they struggle to react.

Ernst & Young estimates that companies that take a structured approach to improving working capital can improve their liquidity by 5 per cent of their annual sales. It recommends companies change their bonus schemes to reward improvements in cash performance and to modify payment terms for customers and suppliers where necessary.

Squeezing suppliers has proved a popular but contentious form of improving working capital. Companies such as Tesco and Mars have increased their payment terms to suppliers, often doubling the amount of time to pay them. Some suppliers have complained they have got into financial difficulties because of it and supply chain experts say this makes them less co-operative if they survive the recession.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Fed faces key decisions on Treasuries and interest rates

Fed faces key decisions on Treasuries and interest rates

By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: June 15 2009 03:00 | Last updated: June 15 2009 03:00

The sharp increase in both US bond yields and mortgage rates presents the -Federal Reserve with two key decisions next week: whether to increase its -purchases of Treasuries and whether to push back against expectations of early interest rate rises.

With the US central bank unlikely to authorise large increases in Treasury purchases, the debate is between stopping at the declared $300bn, or increasing this total modestly to enable a gradual phase-out.

Some Fed officials think there could be merit in redirecting some money slated for purchases of mortgage-related securities towards Treasury purchases - giving it more latitude in this market without increasing overall purchases.

Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to reiterate that it expects to keep rates near zero for an "extended period", challenging market expectations of early tightening. But it will also repeat - and might sharpen - the message that it is not tied to any course of action.

Fed hawks are getting edgy. "As the economy recovers, even at a modest pace, resource demands will begin to increase," Tom Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, said on June 3. "At this point the current level of monetary accommodation will need to be withdrawn."

But some Fed officials highlight the low level at which activity is stabilising. "Not enough attention is being paid to how much ground we will need to cover before we return to our pre-recession level of activity," said Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, on June 4.

The Fed leadership - which puts considerable weight on spare capacity - almost certainly shares this view. Officials probably do not expect to raise rates late this year or early next, assuming sub-trend growth, projected drag as the fiscal stimulus fades and the phasing out of some financial market programmes first. However, the statement may accommodate some of the hawks' concerns.

Officials view the policy equivalent to keeping rates on hold as involving a slight increase in Treasury purchases, since the market originally expected this.

However, many think the slight tightening implied by stopping at $300bn might be appropriate. Since the last Fed meeting financial conditions have eased, the risk to growth has abated and the risk that inflation may rise has increased.

As a result, the optimal interest rate will now be higher than in March when purchases were approved. Then, Fed staff estimated the optimal rate to be mimicked through asset purchases was minus 5 per cent. Now, some think it is no lower than minus 3 per cent and could be higher.

On the face of it, that would argue for a reduction in expected purchases. Against this, the Fed never authorised the amount of purchases staff thought equivalent to a policy rate of minus 5 per cent.

Policymakers are not indifferent to the rise in yields and see some threat to housing. But they expect the yields will adjust back down if they do overshoot.

They are, however, concerned about the cliff-edge effect of stopping Treasury purchases, when the $300bn programme is scheduled to lapse in September.

One option is to stretch it out to year end. Another is to add perhaps $100bn, -possibly from planned purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage spreads remain moderate, and Fed buying of these securities is likely to slow in coming months in tandem with an expected decline in new issuance.

Some officials have considered merging the different asset purchase buckets into one purchase fund, though this could make Fed buying less predictable.

Further ahead, some are considering whether the Fed could eventually shift from regular purchases of mortgage-related securities to a backstop role, analogous to its commercial paper facility, stepping in only when spreads expand or liquidity thins.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

World's most livalbe cities in 2009

The city of your dreams

By Tyler Brûlé

Published: June 12 2009 18:43 | Last updated: June 12 2009 18:43

Zurich

“Could you live here?” and “would you live here?” are two of the most common questions colleagues ask each other at the end of a business trip. Responses rarely take the form of a shrugged “I don’t know” or a half-hearted “I guess so”. Rather, they typically come in vehement declarations suggesting that considerable thought has gone into the topic already. Here are a few I’ve heard over the years:

On the train to Chicago’s O’Hare: “No way. It’s neither one thing nor the other and just look at this sad excuse of a train to the airport.”

In a cab to Vancouver International Airport: “Definitely not for me – seems a bit sleepy and limp.”

In a big Mercedes en route to Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok: “I could do it for a short stint but it wouldn’t be for the quality of life.”

Hitching a ride with an associate to Geneva’s Cointrin: “If I could get a great flat close to the lake and move my five closest friends, then it would be amazing.”

Being taxied to Fukuoka airport: “If I wanted the best of Japan but also great connections to the rest of Asia then it would be my first choice.”

How other surveys compare

Assessing quality of life is a difficult business and, as a result, surveys on the subject throw up different results.

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s liveability ranking, released this past Monday, put Vancouver, Canada, in the top spot out of 140 world cities, followed by Vienna .

Canada, Australia and Switzerland dominated the rest of the top 10, with Melbourne in third place, Toronto in fourth, Calgary and Perth tied for fifth/sixth, Geneva in eighth and Zürich and Sydney tied for ninth/10th. Helsinki was seventh, while London was 51st, behind Manchester at 46th. Asia’s best city was Osaka, Japan, at 13th, while the top US spot was Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at 29th.

Mercer’s quality of living survey, released in April and covering 215 cities, was led by Vienna, followed by Zürich, Geneva, Vancouver and Auckland. Singapore was the most liveable Asian locale in 26th place, Honolulu was best in the US at 29th and London was the highest UK scorer at 38th.

There are similarities between these lists and Monocle’s and the reason is simple. According to Jon Copestake, editor of the EIU report, cities that score best tend to be mid-sized, in developed countries, offering culture and recreation but without the crime or infrastructure problems seen in places with larger populations.

Most of us tend to play some version of the game every time we travel and, while some quickly conclude they wouldn’t trade their current set-up for anywhere else in the world, I’d argue there are considerably more who are tempted to give up their current address for a place that promises better housing, worklife, transport, schools, restaurants, weather, shopping and weekend pursuits.

If there was a professional league for this particular sport, I’m quite confident I’d be on a huge contract and captain of my team. From the age of three I’ve always been on the move – I did two complete circuits of Winnipeg-Montreal-Toronto by the time I was 15 – and, since 1989, when I relocated to the far side of the Atlantic, I’ve been fascinated by the forces that make cities work (or not) and analysing the advantages and disadvantages to living in them.

My first stop in the UK was Manchester and, from the moment I stepped off the plane, I was looking south and east for a town with better weather, tastier food, more peaceful, polite neighbours and houses with proper heating and windows. London was the obvious choice and the place I ventured next. But for some reason I could hear Hamburg calling from across the North Sea.

That my mother was born in Lübeck, north of the city, might have had something to do with it. But, after a weekend visit in the 1990s, I was also smitten by the city’s compact and efficient airport, its cosy neighbourhoods dotted with inviting bakeries and shops, its centrally located lake, its great restaurants and even better bars. It also offered a buzzing media scene, with journalists working for Stern, Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, Tempo, NDR and a host of other titles, broadcasters and agencies.

So I moved and spent two years marvelling at how the quality of life in north Germany could be so much better than in the UK capital. Apartments were not damp but warm and dry in spite of equally horrendous weather. One could get a meal at 11pm, instead of being told, sullenly, that the kitchen was closed. Even the doors of buildings closed with a more reassuring whoosh and a thud. The list goes on.

Unfortunately, for career reasons, I was forced to give up on Hamburg and return to London in 1994. Yet my wanderlust – and my obsession with stacking cities up against each other – has not abated.

It was about this time three years ago that I was hustling from London to Tokyo, Stockholm to Sydney, Barcelona to Geneva trying to secure financing for Monocle magazine as well as creating our first-year editorial plan. In the midst of my travels, I suddenly realised we should create a new global “liveability” survey to challenge the ones put out by the likes of Mercer and the Economist Intelligence Unit each year.

In addition to looking at obvious cut-and-dried statistics such as average salaries, school performance and healthcare costs, we would ask our network of researchers to consider softer issues – physical and technological connectivity, tolerance, the strength of local media and culture and, of course, late-night eating and entertainment options.

Tokyo
Tokyo
The inaugural winner of Monocle’s “world’s most liveable city” award, in 2007, was Munich, which scored high in all our designated categories. (Given my Hamburg experience, I wasn’t surprised.) Then, last year, the German city was beaten by Copenhagen due to the Danish capital’s strong environmental efforts, subway network expansion and diverse neighbourhoods.

For 2009, we decided to tweak the metrics a bit, looking at three new factors: the independence of a city’s retail and restaurant scene (let’s call it the Zara/Starbucks index), the ease with which small business owners can start up operations and planned infrastructure improvements. More broadly, we considered the way in which locals and visitors are able to navigate and use everything from public parks to the local property market. In our view, places with the best quality of life are those with the fewest daily obstructions, allowing residents to be both productive and free of unnecessary stress.

Starting with a shortlist of more than 40 cities and taking these new elements into account, our rankings didn’t change dramatically. But Zürich did move into the top spot, thanks to outstanding and still improving public transport, including an expanding tram system and main rail station; ample leisure activities, including 50 museums and excellent restaurants; environmental activism in setting new emissions targets; good business culture, with local authorities offering both advice and low-cost office space; and its airport, which serves 170 destinations and is now in line for a SFr460m (£262m) revamp.

The most ‘liveable’
20092008
14Zürich
21Copenhagen
3-Tokyo
42Munich
5-Helsinki
67Stockholm
76Vienna
810Paris
9-Melbourne
1014Berlin
1112Honolulu
1213Madrid
1311Sydney
148Vancouver
15-Barcelona
1617Fukuoka
17-Oslo
1822Singapore
1916Montreal
20-Auckland
2118Amsterdam
2220Kyoto
2321Hamburg
2423Geneva
2525Lisbon
*First time on list: Oslo and Auckland
Dropped off: Minneapolis and Portland
Source: Monocle

Copenhagen dropped to second place, reflecting a less impressive airport experience and a loss of flavour in its city centre, although it remains clean, green, cultural and virtually crime-free, while Tokyo held its number-three position, with big improvements to its main rail station and Haneda airport in the works on top of its already impeccable service-based economy. Oslo entered the top 20; Auckland returned after a one-year absence; and both Fukuoka and Berlin advanced several spots.

As usual, our list revealed that outside Japan and Singapore, Asia still has a lot of work to do, as does the US, with New York’s “world-capital” claim felled by the abysmal quality of its transport, public schools and housing stock (not to mention the carnage on Wall Street) and only Honolulu in Hawaii making the cut. Also, as is common in quality-of-life surveys, no African or South American cities were included, since the leading contenders – Santiago, Buenos Aires, Montevideo – all scored low on some basic metrics.

As for London, my home, it didn’t make the top 25 for many of the same reasons New York was omitted. So why am I still here? I can’t argue with the findings of the Monocle survey. Indeed, I once considered Zürich my dream city, with its speedy trains connecting me to skiing and Milan, its wonderful lake and bathing clubs, its pretty hillsides and solid Swiss apartments. Yet, when I eventually tried living there, I lasted less than a year. No matter how much the city had to offer, I couldn’t stand my narrow-minded neighbours. Zürich might have been a liveable city then but it wasn’t a welcoming one.

Have things changed? Well, aside from the improvements listed above, there is also a new mayor, the city’s first openly gay leader, who could do her bit to lighten the mood. Perhaps it’s time for me to give it another go.

For the moment, though, I’ll continue to endure London while simply sampling the top three on a regular basis – Zürich en route to skiing in St Moritz, Copenhagen when summering in Sweden and Tokyo for business trips at least once a month. Could I, would I, live in any of them full-time at some point in my life? Certainly.

Tyler Brûlé is editor-in-chief of Monocle magazine and the FT’s Fast Lane columnist. The July/August issue of Monocle, featuring its 2009 liveability rankings, is on sale from Wednesday